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Tenacity Versus Failing Early (and Often)
One potential danger is if the Knol pages get better treatment in the search rankings, but Google may have started that way because they believe the can influence the content enough to keep it clean. If the first page of google results starts to fill up with spam they'll have a hard time competing with anyone on anything for long.
As an aside, I wonder what completes the sequence "forgotten", "spam-filled", "flawed-but-fascinating"...
Google is merely yet another nail in the coffin for professional online producers - the main driving force, bigger even than Google, is the amateur-empowering basic nature of the Web. And that nature may burn Google's fingers if it tries its hand at professional content with meaningful stakes (I'd like to see figures on investment into Knol but I doubt it's a big bet) - there's no reason why Google should be immune in this arena when nobody else has been so far.
Personally, I think the push into second-click content is a trip to low-ROI zone. It's especially true if they go into content that is already heavily using ad-sense, where the incremental revenue is merely the recapturing of ad-sense dollars paid out to the old content creator. Also, what happens when they push out an endemic/niche site with really damn good CPM, only to replace it with moderate ad-sense CPM? All in all, my fear is you have a bunch of low ROI or ROI negative google projects killing ROI positive businesses because they are kept afloat by an upstream cash cow.
qdub, i think you're more on the mark with your comment made 2 levels up - they have an inherent knowledge of SEO, and they'll never get blacklisted, they'll be fully aware of what path their spiders take through the site, what it sees, what it likes, what it dislikes, etc. Expect Danny Sullivan and co to pay very close attention to Knol's design features and to extrapolate good SEO practices from it. This may not be all bad for clever content publishers...
as for the CPMs (and the ROI corollary - as I said, it'd be interesting to see how much google has staked on Knol - doubt it's much)... it would seem unlikely that, with the insider's perspective we just agreed they have, they would be putting low CPM content up; after all, doubtless they have a sandbox environment that they can run a knol page in and see what CPMs it would likely fetch, and what it would displace in the rankings, no? Besides, is there any reason to presuppose that these will be low-CPM pages? The emphasis is on authoritatively put together, highly-useful, zero sales-pitch quasi-encyclopedic content, with high-interest visitors... sounds like for a given topic it ought to tend to a naturally high (relative) SERP, and for high CPMs too (again relative to others in the niche), over time. I can't quite see it displacing higher-returns business, especially further down the line.
It may kick the crutch from out of a single-keyword reliant publisher but is there anything inefficient about that? This ecosystem can heal itself extremely well - it's one of the most diverse ecosystems of human activity, and low low low barriers to entry mean something else, better adapted, will just flow into the virtual space left by it.
spam and content scraping is an interesting question: will anyone risk google's fury by copying their content or trying to insert your own links into it?